RTS Link to spur S’poreans to spend $1 billion more in JB a year: Study

SINGAPORE – When the Johor Bahru-Singapore RTS Link begins passenger service in January 2027, Singaporeans are projected to spend $1.05 billion more that year across the Causeway – nearly 40 per cent higher than the $756 million expected increase in spending by JB visitors in Singapore.

The projections come from a joint study released on July 16 by the Singapore Business Federation (SBF), the Restaurant Association of Singapore (RAS) and the Singapore Retailers Association (SRA), examining how the RTS Link could reshape consumer spending, tourism flows and business competitiveness in Singapore’s retail and food and beverage sectors.

The study estimated that in 2025, Singaporeans spent about $1.7 billion in JB, while those from JB spent about $1.3 billion here.

The study projected a 51 per cent annual increase in Singapore consumers crossing over to JB once the railway shuttle opens, with groceries, pharmaceuticals, dining and beauty currently topping the list of categories Singaporeans spend on.

Among JB respondents, 34 per cent said they intend to visit Singapore once the RTS Link opens, and annual visits by public transport users are projected to rise by 57 per cent on average, the study found.

Visitors who drive to Singapore said they would switch to the RTS Link, with a preference for overnight stays and spending on entertainment.

Currently, public transport options between both cities are the KTM Shuttle Tebrau train or cross-border buses and taxis. The RTS Link is intended to offer a faster, higher-frequency alternative to the KTM service.

Worries about competition, manpower and cost pressures

According to the study, businesses across Singapore’s retail, F&B and wider business ecosystem were concerned that the RTS Link would intensify competition from JB, particularly in price-sensitive segments such as groceries, pharmaceuticals and beauty services, where lower cross-border prices are already shaping consumer spending patterns.

Beyond pricing, businesses said they could differentiate through service quality, customer experience and distinct offerings – but pointed to persistent manpower, compliance and cost pressures as barriers to innovating and scaling.

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) were particularly concerned about adapting as quickly as larger operators, and called for more support to strengthen competitiveness and capture new opportunities from increased cross-border flows, the study found.

Still, the billion dollars more that Singaporeans are projected to spend in JB is a small portion of Singapore’s retail and F&B sector, which contributed about $16.6 billion to the economy in 2025, said the study.

Support for SMEs

The SBF, RAS and SRA said the industry and the Government could first focus on growing local and tourist spending, while helping retail and F&B businesses adapt and seize new opportunities – by addressing structural cost pressures and supporting new operating and business models.

Some suggestions include:

SRA president Ernie Koh said: “We are not asking for a long-term easing of this because as the country progresses, naturally, rentals go up, manpower (needs) go up. But it’s this transition where we pivot. We are requesting to see what can be done on relaxing foreign talent, changing the requirement a little bit.”

While the issues facing the retail and F&B industries are not new, the RTS Link acts as a catalyst for businesses to hone their strengths and move forward.

Another focus of the SRA is nurturing the entrepreneurial spirit of local retailers, Koh added.

“Young consumers pivot towards what is unique, and what we can do as an association is to help these SMEs so that they can grow accordingly,” he said.

“There is a suite of activities we are doing even before the RTS Link opens. RTS is something we have to consider on top of the current difficulties retail is facing in terms of cost structure and retail outflow.”

SBF said the study’s findings and recommendations have been shared with the Ministry of Trade and Industry. The study underscored the need for stronger collaboration among trade associations, landlords, tourism stakeholders and government agencies to help businesses respond to changing consumer trends and increased cross-border connectivity.

SBF chief executive Kok Ping Soon said the RTS Link will create opportunities for Singapore businesses to attract more visitors, but noted that it also raises competitive pressure, particularly for the retail and F&B sectors.

“This impact will not be limited just to businesses near the border or in northern Singapore. Retail and F&B businesses operate across the island, and these shifts will be felt much more broadly,” he said at the press conference held at the Singapore Business Federation Center in Robinson Road.

He added that local businesses “cannot and should not” try to compete in terms of price, but should build on their strengths.

“They are quality, service, trust, convenience, innovation and experience. But businesses need the right conditions to compete on this trend. Many are already under pressure from manpower constraints, rental costs and operating costs, and RTS Link adds another layer of competitive pressure, which is structural.

“That is why we see RTS as an inflexion point for the retail and F&B sectors. It’s not something to fear, but something to prepare for. The goal is to help Singapore businesses adapt, compete and capture opportunities in a more connected Singapore-Johor Bahru market.”

Koh said SRA anticipates a “measurable shift in consumer behaviour” once the RTS Link opens, and is exploring ways to support its members.

He pointed to helping retailers understand that their value proposition matters as much as price, and to creating platforms that boost brand visibility – citing the ongoing Singapore Retail Festival, now in its second year, as one example.

Koh said trade associations could work more closely with the Government to help businesses stay competitive and relevant, framing the RTS Link as an opportunity rather than a threat.

“We treat it as ‘what opportunities can we have’, not a fear of ‘something is going to happen’. If we play it correctly, it will benefit us.”

He added that more foreigners visiting would add to Singapore’s vibrancy.

Mr Benjamin Boh, president of RAS, said Singapore’s F&B sector, while resilient, operates in a cost-sensitive climate that strains manpower.

This has knock-on effects on service quality that give locals yet another reason to spend where their Singdollar stretches further.

“Consumers are changing the way they move around Singapore, the way their lifestyles are lived. We all have to deal with that. The RTS just adds another dimension – it’s more direct because consumers have more choice and more access to those choices moving forward. The study helps us understand where the pressures will fall, and also where opportunities will emerge,” he said.

Boh added that to capture both local and tourist spending, businesses need manpower agility and operational flexibility to consistently deliver compelling dining experiences – giving local consumers more reason to spend in Singapore while drawing more visitors.

Study methodology

Mastercard conducted the surveys, with support from Frasers Property and CapitaLand, to gauge consumer sentiment and how behaviour may shift once the RTS Link opens. Mastercard transaction data from Singapore and JB between 2023 and 2025 was used to identify traveller behaviour and project post-RTS spending. About 1,700 respondents in Singapore and 400 respondents in Johor were surveyed.

The policy recommendations from SBF, RAS and SRA were drawn from focus group discussions held between March and April 2026, involving more than 50 participants from 42 companies and organisations across Singapore’s retail, F&B and broader business ecosystem, including mall operators, landlords and thought leadership entities.

Downsides of strong Singdollar

As at 5pm on July 16, one Singdollar traded at RM3.16 against the ringgit.

The Straits Times had earlier reported that the strong Singdollar’s impact on local companies was uneven, with consumer-facing businesses feeling the effects more directly than manufacturers, which say the currency’s strength has had little bearing on their operations.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened monetary policy in April, allowing the Singdollar to appreciate more quickly against a basket of currencies. The central bank is expected to hold this stance at its next meeting later in July.